Donald Trump has proposed sending $2,000 "dividend" checks to millions of Americans, funded by revenue generated from his import tariffs. However, analyses by the nonpartisan Tax Foundation and other independent think tanks conclude that tariffs will not raise sufficient revenue to cover the cost of these proposed checks.
The Tax Foundation estimates that tariffs will generate between $158.4 billion and $207.5 billion annually in the coming years. The cost of these $2,000 checks, depending on eligibility criteria such as income limits and whether dependents are included, is projected to range from approximately $279.8 billion to over $600 billion.
These figures consistently exceed the projected tariff revenue, meaning the checks would largely be an unfunded expense, increasing the national deficit. This has led some experts to question the accuracy of the term "tariff dividend" if the revenue does not directly cover the payouts.
The proposal comes at a time when Americans are facing an affordability crisis due to inflation. While Trump previously gained popularity for stimulus checks during the COVID-19 pandemic, the current proposal faces skepticism from lawmakers concerned about the national deficit and the fiscal implications of such an unfunded program.
Some suggest that eliminating tariffs altogether would be a more direct way to address the economic burdens they create.
