Google will integrate Kalshi and Polymarket predictions into its finance AI tools

Google will incorporate odds from prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket into its Google Finance AI tools. This integration aims to allow users to ask questions about future market events and view probabilities derived from the collective bets placed on these platforms, such as GDP growth forecasts. Both Kalshi and Polymarket classify their offerings as "event contracts" between private parties, which they argue should be regulated like commodities and not as traditional gambling. This distinction has drawn scrutiny from lawmakers and regulators who claim these platforms repackage sports betting as event contracts. Polymarket currently restricts U.S. individuals to a "view-only" mode due to regulatory issues, although this is expected to change. Kalshi is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and claims the right to operate in all 50 states, but faces legal challenges from state attorneys general and anti-gambling groups. Concerns have also been raised about potential market manipulation and the integrity of events, particularly elections, being compromised by prediction markets. Recent research suggests that a significant portion of trading volume on Polymarket may be artificially inflated. Both companies have faced criticism over how they determine event outcomes, with accusations of changing criteria to affect payouts on certain bets. Kalshi is currently engaged in a lawsuit against New York state regulators, asserting federal authority over its operations. The bus... download the app to read more