A new poll of over 11,000 Reform UK supporters reveals a diverse voter coalition unified by anger and distrust but divided on policy. This coalition comprises five distinct groups: the "working right" (26%), who are economically insecure and hostile to immigration; "hardline conservatives" (18%), who are affluent, socially conservative, and anti-immigrant; "squeezed stewards" (29%), who are middle-income, anxious about the cost of living, and concerned about the environment; "reluctant reformers" (19%), who are moderate and vote out of frustration with mainstream politics; and "contrarian youth" (9%), who are young, cynical, and politically volatile.
The demographic breakdown shows Reform supporters span different age groups, educational backgrounds, and income levels. While many are older and have lower incomes, some segments like the contrarian youth are younger and better educated, with a higher proportion in upper income brackets. Financial insecurity is a major concern for a third of supporters, particularly the working right and contrarian youth.
This diversity creates policy tensions. The working right prioritize the cost of living crisis, while hardline conservatives focus on broader economic issues. Immigration is a key concern for hardline conservatives and the working right, but less so for contrarian youth. Climate change also divides the groups, with squeezed stewards supporting action and hardline conservatives expressing skepticism. Attitudes towards workers' rights also vary significantly between the working right and hardline conservatives.
The geographic concentration of these groups suggests Reform poses a threat in both post-industrial northern seats and wealthier southern areas. The working right are concentrated in the north and east, while hardline conservatives and squeezed stewards are found further south. The squeezed stewards, being the largest group and often switching from the Conservatives, are identified as a potentially decisive factor in marginal constit... download the app to read more
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