XRP's price has fallen from a high of $3.66 in August to $2.46, indicating fading momentum and potential downside risk. This decline follows a strong rally from $0.52 in November 2024 to $3.66 in August 2025, but recent attempts to surpass $3 have met resistance, and the $2.30 support level has held. The current market sentiment is a mix of optimism about XRP's fundamentals in global payments and caution due to weakening technical indicators and slowing network activity.
Investors should be aware of three key warning signs. Firstly, XRP's technical support is crumbling, with the price dropping below its 200-week moving average at $2.54, a level that historically marked the bottom of bull runs. A close below the 50-week SMA at $2.45 could signal a broader decline. Momentum indicators like the RSI are weakening, and price action is within a descending channel, suggesting potential further drops.
Secondly, institutional money appears to be exiting or at least slowing down its participation. While new XRP ETFs are expected, enthusiasm seems muted compared to previous hype. Whale holders switched to distribution in early October, with significant deposits to exchanges indicating profit-taking. Outflows from long-term wallets have surged, showing a decrease in confidence among both large and retail investors.
Thirdly, network usage on the XRP Ledger is stalling. Daily transaction volume has dropped below one billion, which is concerning for a network designed for fast, low-cost transfers. Despite an increase in new wallet creation, this appears to be driven by retail traders rather than institutional adoption, suggesting speculative interest is replacing practical use. The declining network utility raises questions about XRP's ability to sustain its current valuation without renewed institutional demand and higher throughput.
Looking ahead to 2026, XRP faces three potential paths. A bullish scenario sees prices between $5 and $8 if institutional confidence returns and Ripple's network expands, fueled by clearer regulations and ETF inflows. A base case projects XRP between $3.00 and $4.00, with modest inflows and gradual adoption leading to... download the app to read more
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