Weather expert Jim Dale has indicated that northern UK cities have the highest probability of experiencing a white Christmas this year, with Inverness, Stirling, Perth, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Belfast, Carlisle, Newcastle, and Lancaster being the most likely contenders. Cities further south like York, Leeds, Manchester, and Sheffield also have a chance, and if an easterly weather pattern prevails, areas such as Kent, London, and East Anglia could see snow.
Western Scotland has the highest probability at 26.7%, followed by Wales at 20%, and northwestern, southern, and southwestern England at 13.3%. The Midlands has a lower prospect at 6.7%.
A white Christmas is officially declared by the Met Office if even a single snowflake is observed falling on Christmas Day, between midnight and midnight. This observation must be verified by an official Met Office observer or an automated weather station.
Forecasters can typically predict the likelihood of snow up to five days in advance. Snow forms when air temperatures are below 2°C; the heaviest snowfalls in the UK generally occur between 0°C and 2°C, as falling snow begins to cool the surrounding air even if the ground temperature is slightly above freezing.
While the term "white Christmas" technically refers to snow falling, the last widespread occurrence of snow on the ground across the UK was in 2010. In recent years, including 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020, a small percentage of weather stations recorded falling snow, but very little, if any, snow lay on the ground, leading to technical but not visually significant white Christmases.
No snow was recorded at any UK station in 2018 or 2019.
