President Donald Trump has proposed distributing $2,000 tariff dividends to most Americans, with an estimated payout timeline by mid-2026, potentially before midterm elections. This proposal requires Congressional approval as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated legislation would be necessary.
Trump stated the dividends would be for individuals of moderate and middle income, excluding high-income earners. A new analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) estimates that these $2,000 tariff dividends would cost approximately $600 billion annually.
Trump announced the plan on Truth Social, claiming the revenue would come from "Trillions of Dollars" collected through tariffs and would be used to reduce the national debt, which he stated was $37 trillion. The CRFB analysis indicates that current Trump-era tariffs, including those facing legal challenges, are projected to raise about $300 billion per year.
Net tariff revenue not subject to the Supreme Court ruling is less than $100 billion annually. Tariffs are taxes on imported goods, typically passed on to consumers through higher prices.
The CRFB calculated that if $2,000 dividends were paid annually, it could increase deficits by $6 trillion over 10 years, costing roughly double what Trump's tariffs are estimated to raise in the same period. If the dividends were paid on a revenue-neutral basis with current tariffs, they could be distributed every other year starting in 2027.
However, if significant tariffs are ruled illegal by the Supreme Court, the remaining tariff income would only be sufficient to fund $2,000 dividends after seven years. The analysis further suggests that using tariff revenue for dividends instead of debt reduction would increase the national debt as a share of GDP to 127% by 2035, compared to the 120% projected under current law.
Annual $2,000 dividend payments could push this figure to 134% of GDP.
